Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 16,266
2 New Jersey 14,269
3 Massachusetts 9,878
4 Rhode Island 8,945
5 Connecticut 8,214
6 District of Columbia 7,107
7 Louisiana 6,311
8 Delaware 5,348
9 Illinois 4,853
10 Michigan 4,379
11 Maryland 4,211
12 Pennsylvania 4,068
13 South Dakota 2,974
14 Indiana 2,960
15 Nebraska 2,939
16 Iowa 2,906
17 Colorado 2,869
18 Georgia 2,601
19 Mississippi 2,536
20 Virginia 2,187
21 Washington 2,045
22 Tennessee 1,893
23 New Hampshire 1,851
24 New Mexico 1,836
25 Nevada 1,776
26 Kansas 1,769
27 Ohio 1,703
28 Florida 1,679
29 Utah 1,614
30 Alabama 1,608
31 North Dakota 1,562
32 Vermont 1,437
33 California 1,393
34 Missouri 1,377
35 Wisconsin 1,367
36 South Carolina 1,286
37 Arizona 1,187
38 Minnesota 1,181
39 Kentucky 1,168
40 Arkansas 1,136
41 Texas 1,113
42 North Carolina 1,112
43 Idaho 1,066
44 Oklahoma 1,003
45 Maine 881
46 Wyoming 751
47 West Virginia 666
48 Oregon 635
49 Puerto Rico 565
50 Alaska 500
51 Hawaii 431
52 Montana 425

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 District of Columbia 327
2 New Jersey 303
3 Massachusetts 284
4 Rhode Island 269
5 Nebraska 233
6 Illinois 225
7 Iowa 213
8 New York 206
9 Maryland 205
10 Delaware 162
11 Connecticut 148
12 Tennessee 115
13 Virginia 110
14 Indiana 104
15 Pennsylvania 100
16 Kansas 98
17 Louisiana 96
18 New Hampshire 91
19 Minnesota 90
20 Mississippi 82
21 Michigan 79
22 Colorado 76
23 New Mexico 69
24 Georgia 68
25 South Dakota 68
26 Wisconsin 63
27 Alabama 55
28 North Dakota 54
29 Ohio 53
30 Utah 52
31 Missouri 48
32 Arizona 45
33 Nevada 45
34 California 38
35 Kentucky 38
36 Washington 38
37 Florida 37
38 Texas 37
39 North Carolina 36
40 South Carolina 34
41 Oklahoma 29
42 Puerto Rico 28
43 Maine 22
44 Arkansas 16
45 Vermont 16
46 Oregon 13
47 West Virginia 13
48 Wyoming 11
49 Idaho 8
50 Alaska 5
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 986
2 New Jersey 886
3 Connecticut 683
4 Massachusetts 580
5 Louisiana 423
6 Michigan 405
7 District of Columbia 355
8 Rhode Island 302
9 Pennsylvania 222
10 Illinois 207
11 Maryland 195
12 Delaware 181
13 Indiana 168
14 Colorado 145
15 Georgia 110
16 Washington 110
17 Mississippi 101
18 Ohio 88
19 Nevada 85
20 Vermont 84
21 Virginia 77
22 Minnesota 74
23 New Mexico 72
24 Florida 64
25 New Hampshire 63
26 Missouri 61
27 Oklahoma 60
28 Alabama 59
29 Iowa 58
30 Wisconsin 58
31 Kentucky 57
32 California 56
33 South Carolina 53
34 Arizona 49
35 Kansas 48
36 Maine 42
37 North Carolina 41
38 Nebraska 40
39 Idaho 35
40 North Dakota 32
41 Tennessee 32
42 Texas 30
43 West Virginia 27
44 Arkansas 25
45 Oregon 25
46 South Dakota 23
47 Puerto Rico 16
48 Utah 15
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 24
2 Massachusetts 21
3 Connecticut 16
4 Rhode Island 16
5 New York 14
6 District of Columbia 12
7 Delaware 8
8 Michigan 8
9 Illinois 7
10 Louisiana 7
11 Maryland 7
12 Indiana 6
13 Pennsylvania 6
14 Minnesota 4
15 Mississippi 4
16 New Mexico 4
17 Virginia 4
18 Colorado 3
19 New Hampshire 3
20 Iowa 2
21 Missouri 2
22 Nevada 2
23 North Dakota 2
24 South Carolina 2
25 Vermont 2
26 Alabama 1
27 Arizona 1
28 Arkansas 1
29 California 1
30 Florida 1
31 Georgia 1
32 Kansas 1
33 Kentucky 1
34 Nebraska 1
35 North Carolina 1
36 Ohio 1
37 Oklahoma 1
38 South Dakota 1
39 West Virginia 1
40 Wisconsin 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Idaho 0
44 Maine 0
45 Montana 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 119,284 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 63,114 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 48,936 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 43,460 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,697 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,359 220 92
Richland South Carolina 2,319 505 83
Pierce Washington 1,664 722 77
Orange California 874 1211 61
York South Carolina 787 1328 57

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,803 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,227 2 99
Early Georgia 1,963 3 99
Nassau New York 1,617 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,605 5 99
Richland South Carolina 96 515 83
Pierce Washington 57 749 76
Davidson Tennessee 40 923 70
Orange California 16 1289 58
York South Carolina 11 1372 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons